NRUC 10-K & 10-Q changes, risk factors and insider trading
National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corp. · NYSE · Miscellaneous Business Credit Institution · CIK 70502 · All filings on SEC.gov
At a glance
What changed in the latest 10-K
Risk Factors
New heading “The development and use of AI, including by third parties, presents risks and challenges that may adversely impact our business.”
Largest changes
“Our focus as a member-owned finance cooperative is on lending to our rural member electric utility cooperatives, which is the primary source of our revenue. As a result of lending primarily to our members, we have a loan portfolio with single-industry concentration. Loans to rural electric utility cooperatives accounted for approximately 98% of our total loans outstanding as of May 31, 2025. …”see in full comparison
see in full comparisonThe threat of weather-related events or shifts in climate patterns resulting from climate change, including, but not limited to, increases in storm intensity, number of intense storms and temperature extremes in areas in which our member rural electric cooperatives operate, could result in increased power supply and operating costs, adversely impacting our members’ results of operations, liquidity and ability to make payments to us. While ourOur members have traditionallylargelybeen reimbursed byFederaltheEmergency Management Agency (“FEMA”) relief programsfor eligiblestorm-relatedstorm‑relateddamages,damages.inIn January 2025, an executive order established the FEMA Review Councilwithtothe intent of implementingimplement significant reforms to FEMA and its reimbursement programs. Ongoing organizational and policyreformschanges at FEMA, including leadership changes, staffing reductions and evolving federal and state roles, maypresent a risk toaffect theeligibilityeligibility, scope and timing of disaster cost reimbursements.AsIna result, the programs on which our members have relied upon may not be implemented in their current forms or payments may not be received on a timely basis. Further,addition, FEMA generally does not provide relief for events caused by humanerrorerror, and, as a result, the majority of wildfires may not becoveredcovered.events.MoreForbroadly,increasedthepowercurrentcosts,administrationalthoughisweimplementingbelievesignificant changes to federal agencies and programs, including executive actions to eliminate or modify agency and program funding, reduce the federal workforce and change agency oversight. Federal programs on which our members rely havethebeen,abilityand may continue topassbe,throughdisruptedincreasedorcostseliminated,tomay not be implemented in theirmembers,currentinforms,some cases itor maybenotdifficultfundto pass through the entire costspayments on a timelybasis if they are significant.basis. To the extentCFCwemakesmake bridge loans to membersas they wait forawaiting FEMA payments, changes to FEMA programs or delays in FEMA paymentsfrom FEMAcould adversely impact the quality of our loan portfolio and our financial condition.Additionally, our member rural electric cooperatives are subject to evolving local, state and federal laws, regulations and expectations regarding the environment. These requirements and expectations may increase the time and costs of efforts to monitor and comply with such obligations and expose them to liability. The impacts of climate change present notable risks, including damage to the assets of our members, which could adversely impact the quality of our loan portfolio and our financial condition.
“As a member‑owned finance cooperative, we lend primarily to our rural electric utility cooperative members, which is the primary source of our revenue. This results in a loan portfolio with single‑industry concentration; loans to rural electric utility cooperatives accounted for approximately 98% of our total loans outstanding as of May 31, 2026. …”see in full comparison
“The development and use of AI, including by third parties, presents risks and challenges that may adversely impact our business.”see in full comparison
We use our IT networks and related systems to access, store, transmit and manage or support a variety of our business processes and information, as well as that of our members. We face risks associated with cybersecurity incidents and other disruptions of our IT networks and related systems. Cybersecurity incidents pose a risk to the security of our members’ strategic business information and the confidentiality and integrity of our data, which include strategic and proprietary information. This risk continues to increase and cyberattack methods continue to evolve in sophistication, velocity and frequency. The use of new andsee in full comparisonemergingdeveloping technologiesthroughsuchartificialasintelligenceAI and machine learning and quantum computing may intensify thisriskrisk.as adversariesAdversaries may leverageartificial intelligenceAI to craft more sophisticated phishing schemes, automate social engineeringattacks orattacks, generate malware with increasedspeed.speed, create deepfakes of company personnel or conduct AI-orchestrated cyberattacks with minimal human involvement, potentially increasing both the frequency and sophistication of attacks. Cybersecurity incidents may occur from a variety of sources, such as foreign governments, hackers or other well-financed entities, and may originate from less regulated and remote areas of the world. Employee errors, malfeasance, technology failures and other irregularities may also contribute to these events. Any such cybersecurity incident can result in a loss of our own business information or information we process on behalf of our members or others, a loss of integrity of such information, a delay or inability to provide service of affected products to our members, material harm to our financial condition or cash flows, damage to our reputation, including a loss of confidence in the security of our products and services, and significant legal and financial exposure, including regulatory scrutiny or enforcement, litigation and damage to our stakeholder relationships. Because the techniques used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service or sabotage systems change frequently, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or implement adequate preventative measures. As a result, cyber-related attacks may remain undetected for an extended period and may be costly to remediate.
“The legal and regulatory environment relating to AI is uncertain and rapidly evolving, and includes regulatory schemes targeted specifically at AI as well as provisions in intellectual property, privacy, consumer protection and other laws applicable to the use of AI. Recent federal executive actions have signaled a shift in the regulatory landscape for AI in the United States, including efforts to promote a unified national approach to AI oversight. …”see in full comparison
Full comparison: every changed paragraph (31)
We face the risk that the principal of, or interest on, a loan will not be paid on a timely basis or at all or that the value of any underlying collateral securing a loan will be insufficient to cover our outstanding exposure. A deterioration in the financial condition of a borrower or underlying collateral could impair the ability of a borrower to repay a loan or our ability to recover unpaid amounts from the underlying collateral. We maintain an internal borrower risk rating system in which we assign a rating to each borrower and credit facility that is intended to reflect the ability of a borrower to repay its obligations and assess the probability of default and loss given default. The borrower risk rating system comprises both quantitative metrics and qualitative considerations. Each component is risk weighted in accordance with its importance. Unforeseen events and developments that affect specific borrowers or that occur in a region where we have a high concentration of credit risk may result in risk rating downgrades. Such an event may result in an increase in any or all of the following: in the allowance for credit losses; delinquent, nonperformingnonaccrual and criticized loans; net charge-offs; and our credit risk.
We establish an allowance for credit losses based on management’s current estimate of credit losses that are expected to occur over the remaining life of the loans in our portfolio. Because the process for determining our allowance for credit losses requires informed judgments about the ability of borrowers to repay their loans, we identify the estimation of our allowance for credit losses as a critical accounting estimate. Our borrower risk ratings are a key input in establishing our allowance for credit losses. Therefore, the deterioration in the financial condition of a borrower may result in a significant increase in our allowance for credit losses and provision for credit losses and may have a material adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. In addition, we might underestimate expected credit losses and have credit losses in excess of the established allowance for credit losses if we fail to timely identify a deterioration in a borrower’s financial condition or due to other factors. These other factors may include if the methodologypossibility that the methodologies and processprocesses we use into assigningassign borrower risk ratings and makingmake judgments in extending credit to our borrowers doesdo not accurately capture the level of our credit risk exposure or our historical loss experienceexperience, and therefore proves to be not indicative of our expected future losses.
As a member‑owned finance cooperative, we lend primarily to our rural electric utility cooperative members, which is the primary source of our revenue. This results in a loan portfolio with single‑industry concentration; loans to rural electric utility cooperatives accounted for approximately 98% of our total loans outstanding as of May 31, 2026. While we historically have experienced limited defaults and very low credit losses in this portfolio, adverse developments affecting our members could result in risk rating downgrades, an increase in our allowance for credit losses and a decrease in our net income.
Factors that could negatively impact our members’ operations and financial performance include, but are not limited to:
•The price and availability of distributed energy resources, and whether those resources are sufficient to serve peak electric demand;
•The operational reliability and resilience of their power grids;
•Cyber‑related incidents or other breaches of their operating systems and network infrastructure;
•Evolving local, state and federal environmental laws, regulations and expectations, including those related to managing greenhouse gas emissions (with the potential for stranded assets), which may increase compliance costs and expose our members to liability; and
•Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires, including conditions associated with climate change, that damage member assets and increase power supply and operating costs.
Individually or in combination, these factors could result in declining sales, higher operating costs and deterioration in the financial performance of our members and the value of the collateral securing their loans, impairing their ability to repay us. Although we believe our members generally have the ability to pass through increased costs to their end‑use consumers, in some cases it may be difficult to do so on a timely basis if the increases are significant.
Our focus as a member-owned finance cooperative is on lending to our rural member electric utility cooperatives, which is the primary source of our revenue. As a result of lending primarily to our members, we have a loan portfolio with single-industry concentration. Loans to rural electric utility cooperatives accounted for approximately 98% of our total loans outstanding as of May 31, 2025. While we historically have experienced limited defaults and very low credit losses in our electric utility loan portfolio, factors that may have a negative impact on the operations of our member rural electric cooperatives include but are not limited to, the price and availability of distributed energy resources; whether these resources will be sufficient to serve electric demand at its peak; the operational reliability and resilience of their power grids; cyber-related attacks or other breaches of their operating systems and network infrastructure; regulatory or compliance factors related to managing greenhouse gas emissions (including the potential for stranded assets); and extreme weather conditions leading to events such as hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires, including weather conditions related to climate change. The factors listed above, individually or in combination, could result in declining sales or increased power supply and operating costs and could potentially cause a deterioration in the financial performance of our members and the value of the collateral securing their loans. This could impair their ability to repay us in accordance with the terms of their loans. In such cases, it may lead to risk rating downgrades, which may result in an increase in our allowance for credit losses and a decrease in our net income.
The threat of weather-related events or shifts in climate patterns resulting from climate change, including, but not limited to, increases in storm intensity, number of intense storms and temperature extremes in areas in which our member rural electric cooperatives operate, could result in increased power supply and operating costs, adversely impacting our members’ results of operations, liquidity and ability to make payments to us. While ourOur members have traditionally largely been reimbursed by Federalthe Emergency Management Agency (“FEMA”) relief programs for eligible storm-relatedstorm‑related damages,damages. inIn January 2025, an executive order established the FEMA Review Council withto the intent of implementingimplement significant reforms to FEMA and its reimbursement programs. Ongoing organizational and policy reformschanges at FEMA, including leadership changes, staffing reductions and evolving federal and state roles, may present a risk toaffect the eligibilityeligibility, scope and timing of disaster cost reimbursements. AsIn a result, the programs on which our members have relied upon may not be implemented in their current forms or payments may not be received on a timely basis. Further,addition, FEMA generally does not provide relief for events caused by human errorerror, and, as a result, the majority of wildfires may not be coveredcovered. events.More Forbroadly, increasedthe powercurrent costs,administration althoughis weimplementing believesignificant changes to federal agencies and programs, including executive actions to eliminate or modify agency and program funding, reduce the federal workforce and change agency oversight. Federal programs on which our members rely have thebeen, abilityand may continue to passbe, throughdisrupted increasedor costseliminated, tomay not be implemented in their members,current informs, some cases itor may benot difficultfund to pass through the entire costspayments on a timely basis if they are significant.basis. To the extent CFCwe makesmake bridge loans to members as they wait forawaiting FEMA payments, changes to FEMA programs or delays in FEMA payments from FEMA could adversely impact the quality of our loan portfolio and our financial condition. Additionally, our member rural electric cooperatives are subject to evolving local, state and federal laws, regulations and expectations regarding the environment. These requirements and expectations may increase the time and costs of efforts to monitor and comply with such obligations and expose them to liability. The impacts of climate change present notable risks, including damage to the assets of our members, which could adversely impact the quality of our loan portfolio and our financial condition.
AdvancesTechnological in technologyadvancements may change the way electricity is generated and transmitted or the way broadband is deployed, which could adversely affect the business operations of our members and negatively impact the credit quality of our loan portfolio and financial results.
AdvancesAdvancements in alternative energy technology could reduce demand for power supply systems and distribution services. The development of alternative technologies that produce electricity, including solar cells, wind power and microturbines, has expanded and could ultimately provide affordable alternative sources of electricity and permit end users to adopt distributed generation systems that would allow them to generate electricity for their own use. As these and other technologies, including energy conservation measures, are created, developed and improved, the quantity and frequency of electricity usage by rural customers could decline. As with any internet service provider, rural electric cooperatives may face the risk of being outpaced by technological advancements. While fiber broadband is currently a leading technology, the rise of 5G satellite internet, and other emerging technology, could potentially disrupt the broadband market. Advances in technology and conservation that cause our electric system members’ power supply, transmission and/or distribution facilities to become obsolete prior to the maturity of loans secured by these assets could have an adverse impact on the ability of our members to repay such loans, which could result in an increase in nonperformingnonaccrual or restructured loans. These conditions could negatively impact the credit quality of our loan portfolio and financial results.
As a financial institution, from time to time we may obtain entities and assets of borrowers in default through foreclosure proceedings. If we become the owner and operator of entities or assets obtained through foreclosure, we are subject to the same performance and financial risks as any other owner or operator of similar assets or entities. In particular, the value of the foreclosed assets or entities may deteriorate and have a negative impact on our results of operations. We assess foreclosed assets, if any, for impairment periodically as required under generally accepted accounting principles in the U.S.United States (“U.S. GAAP”). Impairment charges, if required, represent a reduction to earnings in the period of the charge. There may be substantial judgment used in the determination of whether such assets are impaired and in the calculation of the amount of the impairment. In addition, when foreclosed assets are sold to a third party, the sale price we receive may be below the amount previously recorded in our financial statements, which will result in a loss being recorded in the period of the sale.
We depend on access to the capital markets and other sources of financing, such as bank revolving credit agreements, investments from our members, private debt issuances through Farmer Mac and the Guaranteed Underwriter Program, to fund new loan advances, refinance our long- and short-term debt and, if necessary, to fulfill our obligations under our guarantee and repurchase agreements. Prolonged market disruptions, downgrades to our long-term and/or short-term debt ratings, adverse changes in our business or performance, downturns in the electric industry and other events over which we have no control may deny or limit our access to the capital markets and/or subject us to higher costs for such funding. Our access to other sources of funding could also could be limited by the same factors, by adverse changes in the business or performance of our members, by the banks committed to our revolving credit agreements or Farmer Mac, or by changes in federal law or the Guaranteed Underwriter Program. Our funding needs are determined primarily by scheduled short- and long-term debt maturities and the amount of our loan advances to our borrowers relative to the scheduled payment amortization of loans previously made by us. If we are unable to timely issue debt in the capital markets or obtain funding from other sources, we may not have the funds to meet all of our obligations as they become due.
Pursuant to our collateral trust bond indentures, we are required to maintain eligible pledged collateral at least equal to 100% of the principal amount of the bonds issued under the respective indenture. Pursuant to one of our collateral trust bond indentures and our medium-term note indenture, we are required to limit senior indebtedness to 20 times the sum of our members’ equity, subordinated deferrable debt and members’ subordinated certificates. If we were in default under our collateral trust bond or medium-term note indentures, the existing holders of these securities have the right to accelerate the repayment of the full amount of the outstanding debt of the security before the stated maturity of such debt. That acceleration of debt repayments poses a significant liquidity risk, as we might not have enough cash or committed credit available to repay the debt. In addition, if we are not in compliance with the collateral trust bond and medium-term note covenants, we would be unable to issue new debt securities under such indentures. If we were unable to issue new collateral trust bonds and medium-term notes, our ability to fund new loan advances and refinance maturing debt would be impaired.
We use our IT networks and related systems to access, store, transmit and manage or support a variety of our business processes and information, as well as that of our members. We face risks associated with cybersecurity incidents and other disruptions of our IT networks and related systems. Cybersecurity incidents pose a risk to the security of our members’ strategic business information and the confidentiality and integrity of our data, which include strategic and proprietary information. This risk continues to increase and cyberattack methods continue to evolve in sophistication, velocity and frequency. The use of new and emergingdeveloping technologies throughsuch artificialas intelligenceAI and machine learning and quantum computing may intensify this riskrisk. as adversariesAdversaries may leverage artificial intelligenceAI to craft more sophisticated phishing schemes, automate social engineering attacks orattacks, generate malware with increased speed.speed, create deepfakes of company personnel or conduct AI-orchestrated cyberattacks with minimal human involvement, potentially increasing both the frequency and sophistication of attacks. Cybersecurity incidents may occur from a variety of sources, such as foreign governments, hackers or other well-financed entities, and may originate from less regulated and remote areas of the world. Employee errors, malfeasance, technology failures and other irregularities may also contribute to these events. Any such cybersecurity incident can result in a loss of our own business information or information we process on behalf of our members or others, a loss of integrity of such information, a delay or inability to provide service of affected products to our members, material harm to our financial condition or cash flows, damage to our reputation, including a loss of confidence in the security of our products and services, and significant legal and financial exposure, including regulatory scrutiny or enforcement, litigation and damage to our stakeholder relationships. Because the techniques used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service or sabotage systems change frequently, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or implement adequate preventative measures. As a result, cyber-related attacks may remain undetected for an extended period and may be costly to remediate.
While CFC maintains insurance coverage that, subject to policy terms and conditions, covers certain aspects of cyber risks, including business interruptions caused by cybersecurity incidents on information technology systems managed by third parties, such insurance coverage may be insufficient to cover all losses. Our failure to comply with applicable laws, regulations or standards regarding data security and privacy could result in fines, sanctions and litigation. Additionally, newlegislators and regulators are continually adopting or revising privacy, data protection and information and cybersecurity laws at both the federal and state level, creating a complex regulatory patchwork. New or increased laws, regulations, enforcement activity and regulatory guidance in the areas of data security and privacy may increase our costs and our members’ costs, limit our ability to grow our business or otherwise harm our business.
The development and use of AI, including by third parties, presents risks and challenges that may adversely impact our business.
We use, and our competitors and third-party service providers may develop or incorporate, AI technology in certain business processes, services or products. The development and use of AI presents a number of risks and challenges to our business in addition to the cybersecurity concerns addressed above.
The legal and regulatory environment relating to AI is uncertain and rapidly evolving, and includes regulatory schemes targeted specifically at AI as well as provisions in intellectual property, privacy, consumer protection and other laws applicable to the use of AI. Recent federal executive actions have signaled a shift in the regulatory landscape for AI in the United States, including efforts to promote a unified national approach to AI oversight. These evolving laws and regulations could require changes in our, our members’ or our third-party service providers’ consideration and implementation of AI technology and increase compliance costs and the risk of noncompliance.
AI tools may produce output or take actions that are incorrect, that result in the release of private, confidential or proprietary information, that reflect biases included in the data on which they are trained, that could infringe on intellectual property rights or that are otherwise harmful. AI systems often rely on large volumes of data, including sensitive or proprietary information, and the use, storage and processing of such data could increase our, our members’ or our third-party service providers’ exposure to cybersecurity, privacy and data protection risks. We are dependent in part on the manner in which third parties develop, train and deploy their models, including risks arising from the inclusion of any unauthorized material in the training data for their models, a matter over which we may have limited visibility. Failure to properly safeguard data used in AI systems and oversee the functioning and output of AI tools could result in unauthorized access, data compromises, regulatory actions or reputational harm.
Finally, failure on our part to fully take advantage of AI may have an adverse impact on our competitive position. If we are unable to keep pace with our competitors’ implementation of AI tools, we could be placed at a considerable competitive disadvantage, which may adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations.
Any of these risks could expose us to liability or adverse legal or regulatory consequences and harm our reputation and the public perception of our business.
In accordance with our charter documents and the purpose for which we were formed, we lend only to our members and associates. CFC’s directors are elected or appointed from our membership, with 10 director positions filled by directors of members, 10 director positions filled by general managers or chief executive officers of members, two positions appointed by NRECA until June 2027 and one at-large position that must, among other things, be a director, financial officer, general manager or chief executive of one of our members. Upon the termination of the two positions appointed by NRECA in June 2027, two at-large positions will be filled by an executive staff member of our Class B members and a director of our Class D members. CFC currently has loans outstanding to members that are affiliated with CFC directors and may periodically extend new loans to such members. The relationship of CFC’s directors to our members may give rise to conflicts of interests from time to time. See “Item 13. Certain Relationships and Related Transactions, and Director Independence— Review and Approval of Transactions with Related Persons” for a description of our policies with regard to approval of loans to members affiliated with CFC directors.
Labor shortages and supply chain complications exacerbated by, among other things, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and subsequent sanctions and export controls against RussiaRussia, the ongoing conflict with Iran and increased geopolitical tensions between the United States and Canada, China and Mexico, hashave contributed to continuing inflationary pressures. While general inflation in the United States has decreased from peak levels in 2022, it remains at levels not experienced in recent decades. Certain utility assets of our members, such as transformers and solar panels, are highly sensitive to supply chain complications. Rising energy prices, interest rates and wages, and the pending tariffs to be imposed by the United States on imported goods may increase our operating costs, as well as both the operating and borrowing costs of our members, potentially disrupting our business.
We compete with other lenders for the portion of the rural utility loan demand for which RUS will not lend and for loans to members that have elected not to borrow from RUS. The primary competition for the non-RUS loan volume is from CoBank, ACB, a federally chartered instrumentality of the U.S.United States that is a member of the Farm Credit System. As a government-sponsored enterprise, CoBank, ACB has the benefit of an implied government guarantee with respect to its funding. Competition may limit our ability to raise rates to adequately cover increases in costs, which could have an adverse impact on our results of operations.
CFC has been recognized by the Internal Revenue Service as an organization for which income is exempt from federal taxation under Section 501(c)(4) of the Internal Revenue Code (other than any income from an unrelated trade or business). under Section 501(c)(4) of the Internal Revenue Code. In order to maintain CFC’s tax-exempt status, it must continue to operate exclusively for the promotion of social welfare by operating on a cooperative basis for the benefit of its members by providing them cost-based financial products and services consistent with sound financial management, and no part of CFC’s net earnings may inure to the benefit of any private shareholder or individual other than the allocation or return of net earnings or capital to its members in accordance with CFC’s bylaws and incorporating statute in effect in 1996.
Financial institutions that are subject to regulations, oversight and monitoring by U.S. financial regulators are required to maintain specified levels of capital and may be restricted from engaging in certain lending-related and other activities that could adversely affect the safety and soundness of the financial institution or are considered conflicts of interest. As a tax-exempt, nonbank financial institution, we are not subject to the same oversight and supervision. There is no federal financial regulator that monitors compliance with our risk policies and practices or that identifies and addresses potential deficiencies that could adversely affect our financial results. Without regulatory oversight and monitoring, there is a greater potential for us to engage in activities that could pose a risk to our safety and soundness relative to regulated financial institutions.
Our accounting policies and methods are fundamental to how we record and report our financial condition and results of operations. Some of these policies require the use of estimates and assumptions that may affect the reported carrying amount of our assets or liabilities and our results of operations. We consider the accounting policies that require management to make difficult, subjective and complex judgments about matters that are inherently uncertain as our most critical accounting estimates. The use of reasonably different estimates and assumptions could have a material impact on our financial statements or if the assumptions, estimates or judgments were incorrectly made, we could be required to correct and restate prior-period financial statements. In addition, from time to time, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) and the SEC may change the accounting and reporting standards that govern the preparation of our financial statements. These changes can be harddifficult to predict and can materiallyhave a material impact on how CFC records and reports its financial condition and results of operations. We could be required to retroactively apply a new or revised standard retroactively or apply an existing standard differently, on a retroactive basis, in each case potentially resulting in restating prior-period financial statements. For information on what we consider to be our most critical accounting estimates and recent accounting changes, see “Item 7. MD&A—Critical Accounting Estimates” and “Note 1—Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” to our consolidated financial statements.
Management's Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
New heading “Industry Trends Affecting Outlook”
New heading “Loans on Nonaccrual Status”
New heading “Table 35: Adjusted Total Debt Outstanding and Equity”
Removed heading “Electric Cooperative Industry Trends and Developments”
Removed heading “Changing Federal Government Programs and Policies”
Removed heading “Increased Electricity Demand”
Removed heading “Grid Reliability Risk”
Removed heading “Expanded Investments to Deploy Broadband Services”
Removed heading “Nonperforming Loans”
Removed heading “Table 36: Adjusted Total Debt Outstanding and Equity”
Largest changes
“Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict with Iran, have contributed to uncertainty in the broader macroeconomic environment, including volatility in energy markets and continued concerns regarding inflation and interest rates. Although CFC has not identified a material direct impact of these developments on its financial condition, results of operations or liquidity as of the date of this report, a prolonged period of geopolitical instability could contribute to higher borrowing costs, increased operating and capital costs for CFC’s members, and broader market volatility. …”see in full comparison
“Following its meeting held in June 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% and reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining an ample-reserves operating regime. The Committee characterized economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, although uncertainty remained elevated. Job gains have kept pace with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remained elevated, reflecting, in part, supply shocks in certain sectors, including energy. …”see in full comparison
“The federal government is undergoing a deregulatory push that seeks to reduce the amount of federal review and other requirements for grid investments. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) is in the process of revising greenhouse gas emission requirements for new and existing coal and natural gas power plants. This may impact coal plant retirement schedules and provide certainty surrounding building new natural gas plants to meet growing electricity demand. …”see in full comparison
“We recorded a benefit for credit losses of $8 million for FY2025, resulting from a reduction in the asset-specific allowance for a nonperforming loan attributable to higher actual than expected payments received on this loan during FY2025. Our collective allowance decreased slightly during FY2025, primarily due to an improved recovery rate on our power supply loan portfolio, partially offset by an increase attributable to loan portfolio growth. …”see in full comparison
“We had no charge-offs during FY2025 and FY2024. We recorded $1 million in net loan recoveries to previously charged-off loan amounts related to two CFC electric power supply loans during FY2024. Prior to the two CFC electric power supply loan defaults in fiscal years 2021 and 2022, we had not experienced any defaults or charge-offs in our electric utility and telecommunications loan portfolios since fiscal years 2013 and 2017, respectively.”see in full comparison
“Following its meeting held in June 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) of the Federal Reserve kept its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 4.25%–4.50%. The FOMC reiterated that (i) the U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace, (ii) the unemployment rate remains low and (iii) inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Federal Reserve’s June 2025 median projection for gross domestic product (“GDP”) annual growth rate in 2025 is 1.4%, down from 1.7% in March 2025. …”see in full comparison
Full comparison: every changed paragraph (229)
We provide information on the business structure, mission, principal purpose and core business activities of each of these entities under “Item 1. Business.”
Our financial statements include the consolidated accounts of CFC and NCSC. Our principal operations are currently organized for management reporting purposes into two business segments, which are based on the accounts of each of the legal entities included in our consolidated financial statements: CFC and NCSC. We provide information on the business structure, mission, principal purpose and core business activities of each of these entities under “Item 1. Business.” Unless stated otherwise, references to “we,” “our” or “us” relate to CFC and its consolidated entities.
Our reported financial results are determined in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“U.S. GAAP”) and are subject to period-to-period volatility due to changes in market conditions and differences in the way our financial assets and liabilities are accounted for under U.S. GAAP. Our financial assets and liabilities expose us to interest-rate risk, therefore we use derivatives, primarily interest rate swaps, to economically hedge and manage the interest-rate sensitivity mismatch between our financial assets and liabilities. We are required under U.S. GAAP to carry derivatives at fair value on our consolidated balance sheets; however, the financial assets and liabilities for which we use derivatives to economically hedge are carried at amortized cost. Changes in interest rates and the shape of the swap curve result in periodic fluctuations in the fair value of our derivatives, which may cause volatility in our earnings because we do not apply hedge accounting for our interest rate swaps. As a result, the mark-to-market changes in our interest rate swaps are recorded in earnings. The majority of our derivative portfolio consists of pay-fixed swaps with longer maturities, leading to derivative losses when interest rates decline and derivative gains when interest rates rise. This earnings volatility generally is not indicative of the underlying economics of our business, as the derivative forward fair value gains or losses recorded each period may or may not be realized over time, depending on the terms of our derivative instruments and future changes in market conditions that impact the periodic cash settlement amounts of our interest rate swaps.
Therefore, management uses non-GAAP financial measures, which we refer to as “adjusted” measures, to evaluate financial performance. Our key non-GAAP financial measures are adjusted net income, adjusted net interest income, adjusted interest expense, adjusted net interest yield, adjusted TIER, adjusted debt-to-equity ratio and members’ equity. The most comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures are net income, net interest income, interest expense, net interest yield, TIER, debt-to-equity ratio and CFC equity, respectively. The primary adjustments we make to calculate these non-GAAP financial measures consist of (i) adjusting interest expense and net interest income to include the impact of net periodic derivative cash settlements income (expense) amounts; (ii) adjusting net income and total equity to exclude the non-cash impact of the accounting for derivative financial instruments; (iii) adjusting total debt outstanding to exclude members’ subordinated certificates and 50% of the subordinated deferrable debt; (iv) adjusting total equity to include members’ subordinated certificates and 50% of the subordinated deferrable debt, and exclude cumulative derivative forward value gains (losses), historical foreign currency translation adjustments, and the amounts of accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) (“AOCI”); and (v) adjusting CFC equity to exclude derivative forward value gains (losses), historical foreign currency adjustments and AOCI.
•A shift to lossesgains from gainslosses was recorded on our derivatives portfolio of $398$88 million, as we recorded derivative gains of $82 million for FY2026, primarily attributable to increases in the medium- and longer-term swap interest rates during FY2026. In comparison, we recorded derivative losses of $6 million for FY2025, primarily attributable to decreases in interest rates across the swap curve, with the exception of the 30-year swap rate, which increased slightly during FY2025. In comparison, we recorded derivative gains of $392 million for FY2024, primarily due to increases in the medium- and longer-term swap interest rates during FY2024.
•Operating and other expenses increased by $21 million for FY2025 compared with FY2024, primarily driven by higher expenses recorded for salaries and employee benefits, general and administrative, and an impairment loss of $8 million on an equity investment.
•Gains recorded on our investment securities decreased by $5 million, primarily due to period-to-period market fluctuations in fair value.
•Net interest income increased by $7$41 million, attributable to an increase in average interest-earning assets of $1,772$1,960 million, or 5%, partiallyand offsetan by a decreaseincrease in the net interest yield of 27 basis points, or 3%,10%, to 0.72%.0.79%.
•We recorded a benefit for credit losses of $10 million and $8 million for FY2026 and FY2025, resultingrespectively, primarily fromdriven aby decreasedecreases in the asset-specific allowance for a nonperformingnonaccrual CFC power supply loan attributabledue to higher actual than expectedhigher-than-expected payments received on this loan during FY2025.both In comparison, we recorded a benefit for credit losses of $5 million for FY2024, resulting primarily from a decrease in the asset-specific allowance, partially offset by an increase in the collective allowance due to loan portfolio growth.periods.
•Operating and other expenses increased by $9 million for FY2026 compared with FY2025, primarily driven by higher expenses recorded for salaries and employee benefits, general and administrative, and losses on early extinguishment of debt, partially offset by lower impairment loss, as FY2025 included an $8 million impairment loss on an equity investment.
•Gains recorded on our investment securities decreased by $5 million, primarily due to period-to-period market fluctuations in fair value, including both realized and unrealized gains (losses), and lower balances of debt securities resulting from maturities.
•The decreaseincrease in TIER for FY2025FY2026 compared with FY2024FY2025 was primarily driven by thehigher combinednet impactincome, ofreflecting a decreasechanges in netthe incomeforward primarilyvalue attributable toof our derivative portfolio forward value change as discussed above and anincreased increase innet interest expense during FY2025.income.
During FY2025, we refined our methodology for calculating the debt-to-equity ratio to revise from total liabilities divided by total equity to total debt outstanding divided by total equity. This change was driven by a change in our methodology for calculating the adjusted debt-to-equity ratio, which is discussed in more detail under the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations” in this Report. The debt-to-equity ratio under the revised methodology was 11.2010.85 and 10.8611.20 as of May 31, 20252026 and 2024,2025, respectively. The increasedecrease in the debt-to-equity ratio during FY2025FY2026 was due to an increase in total equity, partially offset by an increase in debt to fund loan growth, partially offset by an increase in total equity.growth. The increase in total equity was primarily drivendue byto our reported net income of $140$263 million for FY2025,FY2026, partially offset by the CFC Board of Directors’ authorized patronage capital retirement of $47$53 million in July 2024.2025.
Table 3 below shows our adjusted net income and adjusted TIER for the periods presented and the variance between these periods. Our financial goals focus on earning an annual minimum adjusted TIER of 1.10. We provide a more detailed discussion of our non-GAAP adjusted results under the section “Consolidated Results of Operations.” See “Item 7. MD&A —Consolidated Results of Operations” in our 20242025 Form 10-K for a comparative discussion of our consolidated results of operations between FY2024FY2025 and FY2023.FY2024.
•Adjusted net interest income decreasedincreased by $21$6 million for FY2025FY2026 compared with FY2024,FY2025, driven by an increase in average interest-earning assets of $1,960 million, or 5%, partially offset by a decrease in the adjusted net interest yield of 114 basis points, or 10%,4%, to 1.00%, partially offset by an increase in average interest-earning assets of $1,772 million, or 5%.0.96%.
•We discuss the variances in the other components above under ourthe netsection income“Reported keyResults—Net highlights.Income and TIER—FY2026 versus FY2025—Key Highlights.”
•The slight decrease in adjusted TIER for FY2025FY2026 compared with FY2024FY2025 was primarily driven by the increasedslight decrease in adjusted interestnet expenseincome andduring FY2026 driven by higher operating and other expenses during FY2025.expense.
DuringOur FY2025,financial wegoals refinedfocus ouron methodologymaintaining for calculating thean adjusted debt-to-equity ratio.ratio Consequently,at weapproximately revised8.5-to-1 ouror internally established adjusted debt-to-equity threshold from 6-to-1 to 8.5-to-1.below. The adjusted debt-to-equity ratio under the revised methodology was 7.397.46 and 7.277.39 as of May 31, 20252026 and 2024,2025, respectively. The increase in the adjusted debt-to-equity ratio during FY2025FY2026 was due to an increase in adjusted total debt outstandingoutstanding, resulting from additional borrowings to fund growth in our loan portfolio, partially offset by an increase in adjusted total equity. The increase in adjusted total equity was primarily duedriven to a combined impact ofby our adjusted net income of $245 million for FY2025 and issuances of subordinated deferrable debt during FY2025,FY2026, partially offset by net decreases in members’ subordinated certificates and subordinated deferrable debt, as well as a decrease$53 million reduction in equity ofresulting $47 million attributable tofrom the CFC Board of Directors’ authorized patronage capital retirementretirements in July 2024, as discussed above.2025.
We provide a more detailed discussion of the revised methodology for calculating the adjusted debt-to-equity ratio and a reconciliation of our non-GAAP adjusted measures to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures under the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations” in this Report.
Loans to members totaled $37,080$38,422 million as of May 31, 2025,2026, an increase of $2,538$1,342 million, or 7%,4%, from May 31, 2024,2025, reflectingdriven netprimarily increasesby growth in long-term andloans, linewhich ofincreased credit loans of $1,405$1,310 million andduring $1,130 million, respectively. Of the increase in line of credit loans, 78% was attributable to borrowings under emergency line of credit loans by our members primarily for recovery costs for Hurricane Helene, which impacted the Southeastern United States in September 2024. The remaining 22% was primarily attributable to funding provided for member working capital and NCSC renewable project financing.FY2026. Our loan portfolio composition remained largely unchanged from May 31, 20242025 with 79%78% of loans outstanding to CFC distribution borrowers, 16%17% to CFC power supply borrowers, 3% to NCSC electric borrowers and 2% to NCSC telecom borrowers as of May 31, 2025.2026.
The overall credit quality of our loan portfolio remained strong as of May 31, 2025.2026. We recorded an immaterial charge-off of $0.3 million related to a CFC electric power supply loan during FY2026. We had no loan charge-offs during FY2025 and FY2024. We recorded $1 million in net loan recoveries to previously charged-off loan amounts during FY2024.FY2025.
We had one loan that was on nonaccrual status totaling $8 million as of May 31, 2026, which decreased from $26 million as of May 31, 2025, primarily due to loan repayments. Subsequent to FY2026, we received a $3 million payment on this loan, which reduced its outstanding balance to $5 million.
Our allowance for credit losses and allowance coverage ratio decreased to $30 million and 0.08%, respectively, as of May 31, 2026, from $41 million and 0.11%, respectively, as of May 31, 2025, primarily due to a reduction in the asset-specific allowance. We provide additional information on our allowance for credit losses below under section “Credit Risk—Allowance for Credit Losses” and “Note 5—Allowance for Credit Losses” in this Report.
We had one loan totaling $26 million and $49 million classified as nonperforming as of May 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The reduction in the nonperforming loan was due to payments received on this loan during FY2025.
Our allowance for credit losses and allowance coverage ratio decreased to $41 million and 0.11%, respectively, as of May 31, 2025, from $49 million and 0.14%, respectively, as of May 31, 2024. The $8 million decrease in the allowance for credit losses was attributable to a reduction in the asset-specific allowance due to higher actual than expected payments received on a nonperforming loan during FY2025.
Total debt outstanding increased by $2,051$1,175 million, or 6%,3%, to $34,769$35,944 million as of May 31, 2025,2026, compared with May 31, 2024,2025, primarily due to borrowings to fund the increase in loans to our members. During FY2025,FY2026, substantially all of our new long-term debt issuances were unsecured as we issuedcontinued to access diverse funding sources and strengthen our liquidity position, including:
•Issued approximately $4,425 million of long-term unsecured dealer medium-term notes to institutional investors, $600 million of long-term unsecured subordinated notes in a private placement transaction, and $250 million of secured long-term notes under the Farmer Mac revolving note purchase agreement. Additionally, subsequent to FY2026, we issued $300 million of dealer medium-term notes;
•Redeemed $650 million of high-cost subordinated deferrable debt and recognized $6 million of losses on early extinguishment of debt related to unamortized debt issuance costs in our consolidated statements of operations for FY2026; and
•Expanded committed liquidity by increasing our bank revolving line of credit agreements by $200 million to $3,500 million while also extending maturities by one year and adding a new $450 million committed loan facility with the U.S. Treasury Department’s Federal Financing Bank (“FFB”) under the USDA Guaranteed Underwriter Program (“Guaranteed Underwriter Program”), bringing available capacity under the Guaranteed Underwriter Program to $1,800 million.
During FY2026, Moody’s, Fitch and S&P each affirmed CFC’s credit ratings and stable outlook.
As of May 31, 2026, available liquidity totaled $8,161 million. While this was $1,601 million less than our $9,762 million of scheduled debt obligations over the next 12 months, 29% of those obligations, or $2,821 million, represented member short-term investments, which historically remained stable and are expected to be reinvested with CFC. Excluding member short-term investments, available liquidity exceeded by $1,220 million, or 1.2 times, our scheduled 12-month debt obligations. We also expect to receive $2,184 million of scheduled long-term loan principal payments over the next 12 months. We provide additional information on our available liquidity and financing activities under “Liquidity Risk” in this Report.
Industry Trends Affecting Outlook
•Unsecured long-term dealer medium-term notes totaling approximately $2,400 million, of which $1,800 million was at a weighted average fixed interest rate of 4.65% with an average term of four years, and $600 million was at floating interest rates with an average term of two years; and
•Secured long-term debt totaling $1,450 million at a weighted average fixed interest rate of 4.94% with an average term of 16 years.
In addition, during FY2025, we issued a total of $44 million of 30-year subordinated deferrable interest notes (“subordinated notes”) under a new subordinated debt program that was launched in November 2024. Subsequent to FY2025, we issued $525 million of dealer medium-term notes at a floating interest rate with a term of 18 months.
During FY2025, Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”), Fitch Ratings (“Fitch”) and S&P Global Inc.(“S&P”) affirmed CFC’s credit ratings and stable outlook. On June 2, 2025, at our request, S&P withdrew its “A-2” short-term issue ratings on CFC’s commercial paper program. The “A-” long-term issuer credit rating, the stable outlook and the long-term issue ratings are unchanged as of the date of this Report.
Our available liquidity consists of cash and cash equivalents, investments in debt securities, availability under committed bank revolving line of credit agreements, committed loan facilities under the Guaranteed Underwriter Program of the United States Department of Agriculture (“USDA”) (the “Guaranteed Underwriter Program”), and a revolving note purchase agreement with Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (“Farmer Mac”). As of May 31, 2025, our available liquidity totaled $7,612 million and was $1,158 million less than our total scheduled debt obligations over the next 12 months of $8,770 million. In addition to our existing available liquidity, we expect to receive $1,668 million from scheduled long-term loan principal payments over the next 12 months.
We believe we can continue to roll over our member short-term investments of $2,885 million based on our expectation that our members will continue to reinvest their excess cash primarily in short-term investment products offered by CFC. Our members historically have maintained a relatively stable level of short-term investments in CFC. Member short-term investments in CFC have averaged $3,363 million over the last 12 fiscal quarter-end reporting periods. Our available liquidity as of May 31, 2025 was $1,727 million in excess of, or 1.3 times, our total scheduled debt obligations, excluding member short-term investments, over the next 12 months of $5,885 million.
Electric Cooperative Industry Trends and Developments
Emerging developments and trends in the electric cooperative sector continue to present both opportunities as well asand challenges for our electric cooperative members.members Theseand influence the demand for capital and credit products we provide. Key trends include (i)the changing federal government programsregulatory and policiesfinancing for electric utilities; (ii)landscape, increased electricity demand; (iii)and large-load development, significant generation and transmission capital investment, supply chain and equipment constraints, and continued focus on grid reliability risk; and (iv) expanded investments by many electric cooperatives to deploy broadband services.resiliency.
These trends may affect the timing, size and type of financing our members require. Federal financing programs, including traditional RUS electric loan programs and the New ERA and PACE programs, remain important sources of capital for electric cooperatives; however, timing gaps between award, approval and disbursement are expected to continue to generate demand for interim and bridge financing from CFC. In addition, continued investment in generation, transmission, system hardening and grid modernization may increase demand for capital from CFC. Management does not believe data center-related development has, to date, materially contributed to recent loan growth, although successful large-load project development could drive significant future infrastructure investment and corresponding demand for capital from CFC. For a more detailed discussion of these industry trends, see “Item 1. Business—Industry—Electric Cooperative Industry Trends and Developments.”
Changing Federal Government Programs and Policies
Following the 2024 election, the new Administration and Congress are changing policies related to the electric utility industry. Congress previously created various funding opportunities that electric cooperatives may take advantage of when deploying renewable energy and other clean energy technologies through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”), Congress recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which significantly reduces federal incentives for renewable energy development. These changes are expected to make it more challenging for electric cooperatives to affordably expand renewable energy generation within their portfolios. In contrast, incentives for technologies such as battery storage and carbon capture remain largely unchanged. Congress is also attempting to pass permitting reform, which will streamline the permitting process and reduce costs of grid infrastructure improvements.
The federal government is undergoing a deregulatory push that seeks to reduce the amount of federal review and other requirements for grid investments. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) is in the process of revising greenhouse gas emission requirements for new and existing coal and natural gas power plants. This may impact coal plant retirement schedules and provide certainty surrounding building new natural gas plants to meet growing electricity demand. The Administration is assessing the Federal Emergency Management Agency (“FEMA”), including how to improve efficiencies and the appropriate role of federal and state governments in the allocation and distribution of disaster relief. Finally, the Administration is in the process of introducing tariffs on imported goods in order to improve the trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing. Certain utility assets, such as transformers, solar panels and batteries, are highly sensitive to global supply chain changes. While tariffs may increase short-term costs and lead times for key assets, they may also catalyze long-term supply chain resilience and encourage domestic manufacturing of utility assets. CFC and electric cooperative partners are monitoring the potential impact to cooperatives of these evolving changes in federal policy.
Increased Electricity Demand
According to S&P Global Inc., electricity demand is forecasted to grow substantially in all U.S. regions through 2040. Demand growth is driven primarily by new data centers and new manufacturing facilities in the coming decade followed by electric vehicle growth and beneficial electrification trends. The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and cloud computing technologies is the primary driver of new data center construction, further accelerating electricity demand.
Rural electric cooperatives have become increasingly supportive of beneficial electrification, which refers to the replacement of fossil fuel-powered systems with electrical ones, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, in a way that reduces overall emissions, while providing benefits to the environment and to households. The increased support among electric cooperatives reflects an expectation that beneficial electrification will result in increased sales, while also saving money for members and reducing carbon emissions.
Certain areas of the country will experience more growth than others, but we can expect significant investments in new power supply, transmission and other related infrastructure in order to meet this expected demand.
Grid Reliability Risk
The 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (“NERC”) highlights the key risks to grid reliability. The report emphasizes challenges such as increased electricity demand and retirements of baseload power plants. It also highlights the risk of the transition to renewable energy sources, which presents reliability concerns due to their intermittent nature during a period of increased electricity demand.
Other grid reliability risks include extreme weather events, including hurricanes, winter storms and heat waves, which can strain grid infrastructure and cause widespread outages. We have observed an increase in capital investments by electric cooperatives to proactively strengthen existing electric systems as well as replace systems in the aftermath of damage from weather-related incidents. The adverse impact on electric systems from weather-related incidents has resulted in a heightened awareness by electric cooperatives of the need to focus attention on making infrastructure upgrades to improve both the resiliency and reliability of electric systems. Cybersecurity threats also loom large, with increasing sophistication in attacks targeting critical infrastructure. Electric cooperatives are investing in operational resilience, including workforce training, cybersecurity preparedness and enhanced situational awareness tools.
Expanded Investments to Deploy Broadband Services
Many rural electric distribution cooperatives have made or are making infrastructure investments that include building fiber optic lines to improve electric grid system reliability, efficiency and cost savings, as fiber operations offer enhanced communication to monitor electric systems, identify outages and speed restoration. Some of these electric cooperatives are leveraging these fiber assets to offer access to broadband services to the communities they serve, either directly or by partnering with local telecommunication companies and others. We are currently aware of 216 broadband projects by different CFC member cooperatives, and we have financed or are financing 130 of these 216 broadband projects. Capital expenditures for the completion of these 216 broadband projects are expected to total approximately $13,680 million. We believe that the capital expenditures for the completion of the broadband projects that we have financed or are financing will total approximately $5,537 million. Our aggregate loans outstanding to CFC electric distribution cooperative members relating to broadband projects, which we started tracking in October 2017, increased to approximately $3,441 million as of May 31, 2025, from approximately $3,103 million as of May 31, 2024. The three states with the largest CFC loans outstanding for broadband projects were Arkansas, Indiana and Missouri, and broadband loans outstanding for these states totaled $411 million, $373 million and $356 million, respectively, as of May 31, 2025. Many of these broadband projects are also financially supported by various states and the federal government through grant programs, which reduces the investment risk for our electric cooperative members. Although we expect our member electric cooperatives to continue in their efforts to expand broadband access to unserved and underserved communities, their investment in broadband projects has slowed down in the recent year and is expected to increase at a slower rate.
We believe the above trends and current investment priorities of our electric cooperative members will require funding and may result in an increased demand for capital from CFC.
Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict with Iran, have contributed to uncertainty in the broader macroeconomic environment, including volatility in energy markets and continued concerns regarding inflation and interest rates. Although CFC has not identified a material direct impact of these developments on its financial condition, results of operations or liquidity as of the date of this report, a prolonged period of geopolitical instability could contribute to higher borrowing costs, increased operating and capital costs for CFC’s members, and broader market volatility. CFC continues to monitor these developments and the potential effects on the interest rate environment, capital markets and member operating conditions.
Following its meeting held in June 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% and reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining an ample-reserves operating regime. The Committee characterized economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, although uncertainty remained elevated. Job gains have kept pace with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remained elevated, reflecting, in part, supply shocks in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee also cited developments in the Middle East as contributing to elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.
The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 median projection for real gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth in 2026 is 2.2%, down from 2.4% in its March 2026 projection. The median projection for Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation in 2026 increased to 3.6% from 2.7% in its March 2026 projection. The U.S. unemployment rate in 2026 is projected to average 4.3%, down slightly from 4.4% in its March 2026 projection. The median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.8%.
In June 2026, fed funds futures no longer implied an easing path and instead market pricing implied a roughly flat to modestly higher rate trajectory. Therefore, futures contracts implied the likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate over the following 12 months. Overall, implied market forecasts point to an increase in short-term interest rates, while consensus forecasts indicate a slight decline in long-term interest rates through the first half of calendar year 2027.
Following its meeting held in June 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) of the Federal Reserve kept its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 4.25%–4.50%. The FOMC reiterated that (i) the U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace, (ii) the unemployment rate remains low and (iii) inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Federal Reserve’s June 2025 median projection for gross domestic product (“GDP”) annual growth rate in 2025 is 1.4%, down from 1.7% in March 2025. Its median projection for Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) inflation in 2025 is at 3.0%, up from 2.7% in March 2025, and for U.S. unemployment in 2025 is 4.5%, up from 4.4% in March 2025. As of June 2025, federal funds futures markets anticipated three 25 basis point rate cuts: one in the fourth quarter of 2025, another in the first quarter of 2026 and a final one in the second quarter of 2026. This would bring the target rate range to 3.50%–3.75% by mid-2026. Overall, the market expects interest rates to decline, with a steepening yield curve ahead.
Based on our current forecast assumptions, including the yieldinterest curverates forecast noted above, we project increases in our reported net interest income and net interest yield over the next 12 months compared with the 12-month period ended May 31, 2025.2026. See “Market Risk—Interest Rate Risk Assessment” for an additional discussion.
What changed in the latest 10-Q
Risk Factors
Our financial condition, results of operations and liquidity are subject to various risks and uncertainties, some of which are inherent in the financial services industry and others of which are more specific to our own business. We identify and discuss the most significant risk factors of which we are currently aware that could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations, financial condition or liquidity in the section “Part I—Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our 2025 Form 10-K, as filed with the SEC on August 5, 2025. We are not aware of any material changes in the risk factors identified in our 2025 Form 10-K. However, other risks and uncertainties, including those not currently known to us, could also negatively impact our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. Therefore, the risk factors identified and discussed in our 2025 Form 10-K should not be considered a complete discussion of all the risks and uncertainties we may face. For information on how we manage our key risks, see “Item 7. MD&A—Enterprise Risk Management” in our 2025 Form 10-K.
No wording changes found in this section.
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Management's Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
New heading “Income Taxes (Topic 740)—Improvements to Income Tax Disclosures”
Largest changes
“Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict involving Iran, have contributed to uncertainty in the broader macroeconomic environment, including volatility in energy markets and continued concerns regarding inflation and interest rates. Although CFC has not identified a material direct impact of these developments on its financial condition, results of operations or liquidity as of the date of this report, a prolonged period of geopolitical instability could contribute to higher borrowing costs, increased operating and capital costs for CFC’s members, and broader market volatility. …”see in full comparison
“Following its meeting held in March 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) of the Federal Reserve announced that it would hold the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC noted that uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated, while reaffirming its commitment to achieving inflation at 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee stated that it continues to monitor developments and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as new risks emerge. …”see in full comparison
As presented in Tables 19 and 20 above, as ofsee in full comparisonNovemberFebruary30,28,2025,2026, our available liquidity increased by$363$536 million, or5%,7%, compared with May 31, 2025. The increase was driven by a $450 million increase in Guaranteed Underwriter Program committed facilities, a $200 million increase resulting from amendments to our committed bank revolving line of credit agreements, a$103$35 million net increase in cash and investment debt securitiesbalancesbalances,andpartially offset by a$60$149 millionincreasedecrease in available amount under the Farmer Mac revolving note purchase agreement. However, the increase in available liquidity was outweighed by a larger increase in debt scheduled to mature within the next 12 months, resulting in a decline in our liquidity coverage ratio from 0.87 as of May 31, 2025 to0.760.80 as ofNovemberFebruary30,28,2025, We believe we can continue to roll over our member short-term investments of $3,358 million as of November 30, 2025, based on our expectation that our members will continue to reinvest their excess cash in short-term investment products offered by CFC. As mentioned above, our members historically have maintained a relatively stable level of short-term investments in CFC. Member short-term investments in CFC have averaged $3,250 million over the last 12 fiscal quarter-end reporting periods. Our available liquidity as of November 30, 2025 was $843 million in excess of, or 1.1 times over, our total $7,132 million scheduled debt obligations over the next 12 months, excluding member short-term investments. In addition, we expect to receive $1,849 million from scheduled long-term loan principal payments over the next 12 months.2026.
“We believe we can continue to roll over our member short-term investments of $2,908 million as of February 28, 2026, based on our expectation that our members will continue to reinvest their excess cash in short-term investment products offered by CFC. As mentioned above, our members historically have maintained a relatively stable level of short-term investments in CFC. Member short-term investments in CFC have averaged $3,227 million over the last 12 fiscal quarter-end reporting periods. …”see in full comparison
“Total debt outstanding increased $827 million, or 2%, to $35,596 million as of November 30, 2025, primarily due to borrowings to fund the increase in loans to our members. During YTD FY2026, we issued unsecured long-term dealer medium-term notes totaling $1,725 million, of which $700 million was at a fixed interest rate of 4.15% with a term of three years and $1,025 million was at floating interest rates with an average term of 15 months. …”see in full comparison
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This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended NovemberFebruary 30,28, 20252026 (“this Report”) contains certain statements that are considered “forward-looking statements” as defined in and within the meaning of the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements do not represent historical facts or statements of current conditions. Instead, forward-looking statements represent management’s current beliefs and expectations, based on certain assumptions and estimates made by, and information available to, management at the time the statements are made, regarding our future plans, strategies, operations, financial results or other events and developments, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside our control. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the use of words such as “intend,” “plan,” “may,” “should,” “will,” “project,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “target,” “believe,” “expect,” “forecast,” “continue,” “potential,” “opportunity,” “outlook” and similar expressions, whether in the negative or affirmative. All statements about future expectations or projections, including statements about loan volume, the adequacy of the allowance for credit losses, operating income and expenses, leverage and debt-to-equity ratios, borrower financial performance, impaired loans, and sources and uses of liquidity, are forward-looking statements. Although we believe the expectations reflected in our forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results and performance may differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Therefore, you should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement and should consider the risks and uncertainties that could cause our current expectations to vary from our forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, legislative changes that could affect our tax status and other matters, demand for our loan products, lending competition, changes in the quality or composition of our loan portfolio, changes in our ability to access external financing, fluctuations in interest rates and market volatility, changes in the credit ratings on our debt, valuation of collateral supporting impaired loans, charges associated with our operation or disposition of foreclosed assets, nonperformance of counterparties to our derivative agreements, economic conditions and regulatory or technological changes within the rural electric industry, the costs and impact of legal or governmental proceedings involving us or our members, general economic conditions, governmental monetary and fiscal policies, the occurrence and effect of natural disasters, including severe weather events or public health emergencies, and the factors listed and described under “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025 (“2025 Form 10-K”), as well as any risk factors identified under “Part II—Item 1A. Risk Factors” in this Report. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and, except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect the impact of events, circumstances or changes in expectations that arise after the date any forward-looking statement is made.
Our fiscal year begins on June 1 and ends on May 31. References to “Q2Q3 FY2026” and “YTD FY2026” refer to three and sixnine months ended NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025,2026, respectively. References to “Q2Q3 FY2025” and “YTD FY2025” refer to three and sixnine months ended NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2024,2025, respectively.
Net Income (Loss) and TIER
Table 1 below shows our net income (loss) and TIER for the periods presented and the variance between these periods. We provide a more detailed discussion of our reported results under the section “Consolidated Results of Operations.”
Table 1: Net Income (Loss) and TIER
•Net interest income increased $7 million from Q2 FY2025, driven by an increase in the net interest yield of 3 basis points, or 4%, to 0.77% and an increase in average interest-earning assets of $2,109 million, or 6%.
•We experienced a shift from gains to losses on our derivatives portfolio of $128$73 million. We recorded derivative losses of $19$32 million for Q2Q3 FY2026, primarilydriven attributable toby declines in the short-term and longer-term swap interest rates across the entire swap curve during Q2Q3 FY2026. In comparison, we recorded derivative gains of $109$40 million for Q2Q3 FY2025, attributable to increases in the medium- and longer-term swap interest rates during Q2Q3 FY2025.
•Net interest income increased $13 million from Q3 FY2025, driven by an increase in the net interest yield of 10 basis points, or 14%, to 0.84% and an increase in average interest-earning assets of $1,831 million, or 5%.
•We recorded a shift from gains to losses on our investment securities totaling $3 million, primarily driven by period-to-period market fluctuations in fair value and lower debt security balance due to maturities.
•Operating and other expenses increased by $2$5 million from Q2Q3 FY2025, driven by higher expenses recorded for salaries and employee benefits.benefits and higher other non-interest expenses mainly from losses on extinguishment of debt.
•We recorded a provisionbenefit for credit losses of $1$7 million and $6 million for Q2Q3 FY2026,FY2026 aand slight increase from Q2Q3 FY2025, respectively, primarily driven by an increasedecreases in the collectiveasset-specific allowance for a nonperforming and nonaccrual CFC power supply loan due to thehigher growthactual inand ourexpected payments on this loan portfolio.during both periods.
•We recorded a shift from gains to losses on our investment securities totaling $1 million, primarily driven by period-to-period market fluctuations in fair value, including both realized and unrealized gains (loss), and lower debt security balance due to maturities.
Table 3 below presents a reconciliation of net income (loss) between YTD FY2026 and YTD FY2025.
Table 3: Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss)—YTD
•Net interest income increased $16 million from YTD FY2025, driven by an increase in the net interest yield of 5 basis points, or 7%, to 0.76% and an increase in average interest-earning assets of $2,166 million, or 6%.
•Losses on our derivatives portfolio decreasedincreased $38$34 million compared to YTD FY2025. We recorded derivative losses of $51$83 million for YTD FY2026FY2026, compareddriven withby $89declines in interest rates across the entire swap curve. In comparison, we recorded derivative losses of $49 million for YTD FY2025, driven by declines in interest rates across the entire swap curve in both periods,curve, with the rateexception declinesof inthe YTD30-year FY2026swap beingrate, lesswhich pronouncedincreased thanslightly induring YTD FY2025.
•Net interest income increased $29 million from YTD FY2025, driven by an increase in the net interest yield of 6 basis points, or 8%, to 0.78% and an increase in average interest-earning assets of $2,055 million, or 6%.
•Gains on our investment securities decreased $6 million from YTD FY2025, primarily driven by period-to-period market fluctuations in fair value and lower debt security balance due to maturities.
•Operating and other expenses increased by $6$11 million from YTD FY2025, driven by higher expensesoperating recordedexpense for salaries and employee benefits and other general and administrative.administrative, as well as higher other non-interest expenses, primarily due to losses on extinguishment of debt.
•Gains on our investment securities decreased $7 million from YTD FY2025, primarily driven by period-to-period market fluctuations in fair value, including both realized and unrealized gains (loss), and lower debt security balance due to maturities.
•We recorded a provisionbenefit for credit losses of $3$5 million and $2$4 million for YTD FY2026 and YTD FY2025, respectively, primarily driven by decreases in the asset-specific allowance for a nonperforming and nonaccrual CFC power supply loan, partially offset by increases in the collective allowance due to the growth in our loan portfolio forin both the periods.
•The increasedecrease in TIER for YTD FY2026 compared with YTD FY2025 was driven by the higherlower net income, primarily attributable to our derivative portfolio forward value change as discussed above, partiallyand offset by anthe increase in interest expense during YTD FY2026.
The debt-to-equity ratio was 11.5811.74 and 11.20 as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 20252026 and May 31, 2025, respectively. The increase in the debt-to-equity ratio during YTD FY2026 was due to the combined impact of an increase in debt to fund loan growth and a decrease in total equity. The decrease in total equity was primarily driven by the CFC Board of Directors’ authorized patronage capital retirement of $53 million in July 2025, partially offset by our reported net income of $24$47 million for YTD FY2026.
•Adjusted net interest income decreasedincreased by $2$5 million from Q2Q3 FY2025, driven by a decrease in the adjusted net interest yield of 8 basis points, or 8%, to 0.95%, partially offsetprimarily by an increase in average interest-earning assets of $2,109$1,831 million, or 6%.5%.
•We discuss the variances in the other components above under ourthe netsection income“Reported (loss)Results—Net keyIncome highlights.and TIER— Q3 FY2026 versus Q3 FY2025—Key Highlights.”
•Adjusted TIER for Q3 FY2026 was unchanged from Q3 FY2025, as the increase in adjusted net income was offset by the increase in adjusted interest expense.
•The decrease in adjusted TIER for Q2 FY2026 compared with Q2 FY2025 was driven by an increase in adjusted interest expense and a decrease in adjusted net income during Q2 FY2026.
•Adjusted net interest income decreasedincreased by $5 millionslightly from YTD FY2025, driven by an increase in average interest-earning assets of $2,055 million, or 6%, largely offset by a decrease in the adjusted net interest yield of 86 basis points, or 8%,6%, to 0.96%, partially offset by an increase in average interest-earning assets of $2,166 million, or 6%.
•We discuss the variances in the other components above under ourthe netsection income“Reported (loss)Results—Net keyIncome highlights.and TIER— YTD FY2026 versus YTD FY2025—Key Highlights.”
Our financial goals focus on maintaining an adjusted debt-to-equity ratio at approximately 8.5-to-1 or below. The adjusted debt-to-equity ratio was 7.597.76 and 7.39 as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 20252026 and May 31, 2025, respectively. The increase in the adjusted debt-to-equity ratio during YTD FY2026 was primarily duedriven toby an increase in adjusted total debt outstandingoutstanding, resulting from additional borrowings to fund growth in our loan portfolio.portfolio, partially offset by a slight increase in adjusted total equity. The increase in adjusted total equity was primarily attributable to adjusted net income of $181 million for YTD FY2026, partially offset by the net decrease in subordinated debt and the CFC Board of Directors’ authorized patronage capital retirement of $53 million in July 2025.
Loans to members totaled $37,842$38,750 million as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025,2026, an increase of $762$1,670 million, or 2%,5%, from May 31, 2025, reflecting net increases in long-term and line of credit loans of $582$1,076 million and $180$594 million, respectively. Our loan portfolio composition remained largely unchanged from May 31, 2025 with 78% of loans outstanding to CFC distribution borrowers, 16% to CFC power supply borrowers, 3% to NCSC electric borrowers, 2% to NCSC telecom borrowers, and 1% to CFC statewide and associate borrowers as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025.2026.
The overall credit quality of our loan portfolio remained strong as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025.2026. We recorded a charge-off of $0.3 million related to a CFC electric power supply loan during Q3 FY2026 and YTD FY2026. We had no loan charge-offs during YTD FY2026 and YTD FY2025. We had one loan totaling $24$13 million and $26 million classified as nonperforming and nonaccrual as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 20252026 and May 31, 2025, respectively. The reductiondecrease in thethis nonperformingoutstanding loan outstandingbalance wasreflected due$13 tomillion a paymentpayments received from the borrower during YTD FY2026.FY2026 and an immaterial charge-off during Q3 FY2026, as discussed above. Subsequent to the quarter ended NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025,2026, we received an $11$5 million paymentpayments on this nonperforming loan which reduced its outstanding balance to $13$8 million.
Our allowance for credit losses wasand $43allowance coverage ratio were $36 million and 0.09%, respectively, as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025,2026, compared with $41 million and 0.11%, respectively, as of May 31, 2025. The increase$5 million decrease in the allowance for credit losses wasreflected a $9 million reduction in the asset-specific allowance attributable to anhigher-than-expected payments received on a nonperforming and nonaccrual CFC power supply loan, partially offset by a $4 million increase in the collective allowanceallowance, primarily drivendue by theto growth in our loan portfolio. Our allowance coverage ratio remained steady at 0.11% as of both November 30, 2025 and May 31, 2025.
Total debt outstanding increased $1,578 million, or 5%, to $36,347 million as of February 28, 2026, compared with May 31, 2025, primarily due to borrowings to fund the increase in loans to our members. During YTD FY2026, we issued:
•Unsecured long-term dealer medium-term notes to institutional investors totaling $3,975 million, of which $2,350 million was at a weighted average fixed interest rate of 4.09% and an average term of three years and $1,625 million was at floating interest rates with an average term of 16 months;
•Unsecured subordinated notes of $150 million at a fixed interest rate of 5.75%, due 2056 and noncallable for five years, representing the first tranche of a $600 million private placement of subordinated notes priced in November 2025; the remaining $450 million is scheduled to fund in April 2026; and
•Secured long-term notes under the Farmer Mac revolving note purchase agreement of $250 million.
During YTD FY2026, we redeemed all $300 million in principal amount of our subordinated deferrable debt due 2043 (the “2043 Notes”) at par plus accrued interest and recognized $2 million and $3 million of losses on early extinguishment of debt related to unamortized debt issuance costs in our consolidated statements of operations for Q3 FY2026 and YTD FY2026, respectively. On March 20, 2026, notice was provided to investors that we will redeem all $350 million in principal amount of our 5.25% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated deferrable debt due 2046 (the “2046 Notes”) on April 20, 2026. The 2046 Notes will be redeemed at par plus accrued interest. As a result, we expect to recognize an immaterial amount of losses on early extinguishment of debt related to unamortized debt issuance costs of the 2046 Notes in our consolidated statements of operations.
Subsequent to the quarter ended February 28, 2026, we redeemed all $600 million of our 4.45% fixed-rate dealer medium-term notes due March 2026 at par plus accrued interest.
Total debt outstanding increased $827 million, or 2%, to $35,596 million as of November 30, 2025, primarily due to borrowings to fund the increase in loans to our members. During YTD FY2026, we issued unsecured long-term dealer medium-term notes totaling $1,725 million, of which $700 million was at a fixed interest rate of 4.15% with a term of three years and $1,025 million was at floating interest rates with an average term of 15 months. In November 2025, we priced a $600 million private placement of fixed-to-fixed reset rate subordinated notes due 2056, consisting of two tranches: $150 million notes that are noncallable for five years and $450 million notes that are noncallable for ten years. We intend to fund $150 million in the third quarter and the remaining $450 million in the fourth quarter of our fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. Subsequent to the quarter ended November 30, 2025, we issued an aggregate principal amount of dealer medium-term notes totaling $1,050 million at an average fixed interest rate of 4.08% with an average term of three years and borrowed $250 million in long-term notes payable under our revolving note purchase agreement with the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (“Farmer Mac”).
On June 2, 2025, at our request, S&P withdrew its “A-2” short-term issue ratings on CFC’s commercial paper program. During YTD FY2026, Fitch Ratings (“Fitch”) and S&P Global Inc. (“S&P”) affirmed CFC’s credit ratings and stable outlook.
In September 2025, we executed a commitment letter for the guarantee by RUS of an additional $450 million loan facility from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Federal Financing Bank (“FFB”) under the Guaranteed Underwriter Program.
In October 2025, we redeemed $50 million in principal amount of our $300 million subordinated deferrable debt due 2043 (the “2043 Notes”), at par plus accrued interest. In December 2025, we redeemed the remaining $250 million of the 2043 Notes at par plus accrued interest.
OnIn November 12, 2025, we amended our three-year and four-year committed bank revolving line of credit agreements to extend the maturity date of each facility by one year and to increase the total commitments by $200 million, resulting in a total commitment amount under the two facilities of $3,500 million.
In January 2026, we closed on a $450 million Series W committed loan facility with the U.S.Treasury Department’s Federal Financing Bank (“FFB”) under the USDA Guaranteed Underwriter Program (“Guaranteed Underwriter Program”). As a result of this transaction, total borrowing capacity available to us under the Guaranteed Underwriter Program increased to $1,800 million.
During YTD FY2026, Fitch Ratings (“Fitch”), S&P Global Inc. (“S&P”) and Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) affirmed CFC’s credit ratings and stable outlook, and at our request, S&P withdrew its “A-2” short-term issuer rating on CFC in June 2025.
Our available liquidity consists of cash and cash equivalents, investments in debt securities, availability under committed bank revolving line of credit agreements, committed loan facilities under the USDA Guaranteed Underwriter Program (“Guaranteed Underwriter Program”),Program, and a revolving note purchase agreement with Farmer Mac. As of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025,2026, our available liquidity totaled $7,975$8,148 million and was $2,515$2,022 million less than our total scheduled debt obligations over the next 12 months of $10,490$10,170 million, of which $3,358$2,908 million, or 32%,29%, represented member short-term investments. In addition to our existing available liquidity, we expect to receive $1,849$2,060 million from scheduled long-term loan principal payments over the next 12 months.
We believe we can continue to roll over our member short-term investments based on our expectation that our members will continue to reinvest their excess cash primarily in short-term investment products offered by CFC. Our members historically have maintained a relatively stable level of short-term investments in CFC. Member short-term investments in CFC have averaged $3,250$3,227 million over the last 12 fiscal quarter-end reporting periods. Our available liquidity as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 20252026 was $843$886 million in excess of, or 1.1 times over, our total $7,132$7,262 million scheduled debt obligations over the next 12 months, excluding member short-term investments.
Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict involving Iran, have contributed to uncertainty in the broader macroeconomic environment, including volatility in energy markets and continued concerns regarding inflation and interest rates. Although CFC has not identified a material direct impact of these developments on its financial condition, results of operations or liquidity as of the date of this report, a prolonged period of geopolitical instability could contribute to higher borrowing costs, increased operating and capital costs for CFC’s members, and broader market volatility. CFC continues to monitor these developments and the potential effects on the interest rate environment, capital markets and member operating conditions.
Following its meeting held in March 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) of the Federal Reserve announced that it would hold the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC noted that uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated, while reaffirming its commitment to achieving inflation at 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee stated that it continues to monitor developments and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as new risks emerge. The Committee’s future assessments will take into account labor market conditions, inflation pressures, and financial and international developments.
Following its meeting held in December 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) of the Federal Reserve cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC reaffirmed its strong commitment to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2 percent level. It also noted that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and indicated that it will initiate purchases of shorter-term U.S. Treasury securities as necessary to maintain an adequate supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.
The Federal Reserve’s DecemberMarch 20252026 median projection for the annual growth rate of real gross domestic product (“GDP”) in 2026 is 2.3%,2.4%, up from 1.8%2.3% in its SeptemberDecember 2025 projection. The median projection for Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) inflation in 2026 has declinedincreased to 2.4%2.7% from 2.6%2.4% previously. The U.S. unemployment rate in 2026 is projected to average 4.4%, unchanged from its SeptemberDecember 2025 projection.
Federal funds futures markets anticipate twono additional 25 basis pointfurther rate cuts in calendar year 2026: and one inrate thecut secondof quarter25 andbasis anotherpoints in thecalendar thirdyear quarter.2027. If thesethis rate cutscut occur as expected,occurs, the federal funds target rate would decline to a range of 3.00%3.25%–3.25%3.50% by the end of 2026.2027. Overall the market expects the yield curve to steepen, as short-term interest rates are forecasted to decline, withwhile alonger-term steepeningrates yieldare curveexpected ahead.to remain near current levels.
Based on our current forecast assumptions, including the yield curve forecast noted above, we project increases in our reported net interest income and net interest yield over the next 12 months compared with the 12-month period ended NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025.2026. See “Market Risk—Interest Rate Risk Assessment” in this Report for additional information.
•An increaseIncreases in our adjusted net interest income and a slight increase in our adjusted net interest yield over the next 12 months relative to the 12-month period ended NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025,2026, primarily driven by an increase in interest-earning assets due to projected loan growth and by projected lower adjusted average cost of funding. The projected lowerdecline in adjusted average cost of funding isreflects driven by the expected decreasechanges in thefunding mix and lower variable rate debt cost, partially offset by lower expected average yield earned on our interest rate swaps derivative cash settlements and bythe refinancing of maturing lower-cost long-term debt maturing in the near term that will need to be refinanced at a forecasted higher interest rate.rates. See “Market Risk—Interest Rate Risk Assessment” in this Report for additional information.
•A decreaseslight increase in our adjusted net income over the next 12 months, primarily duedriven toby anhigher increaseadjusted innet interest income, partially offset by higher projected operating expenses.
•A slight decrease in adjusted TIER over the next 12 months, primarily attributable to increases in projected adjustednon-interest interestexpenses, expense andmainly operating expenses.
•AnA increasedecrease in our adjusted debt-to-equity ratio, primarily due to thea projected increase in total adjusted equity driven by an anticipated private placement subordinated debt issuance in April 2026, which outweighs the increase in debt outstanding to fund anticipated growth in our loan portfolio.
As stated above, we exclude the impact of unrealized derivative forward fair value gains (losses) from our non-GAAP financial measures. As the majority of our swaps are long-term with an average remaining life of approximately 1415 years as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 2025,2026, the unrealized periodic derivative forward value gains (losses) are largely based on future expected changes in longer-term interest rates, which we are unable to accurately predict for each reporting period over the next 12 months. Due to the difficulty in predicting these unrealized amounts, we are unable to provide without unreasonable effort a reconciliation of our forward-looking adjusted financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.
This section provides a comparative discussion of our consolidated results of operations between Q2Q3 FY2026 and Q2Q3 FY2025, and between YTD FY2026 and YTD FY2025. Following this section, we provide a discussion and analysis of material changes between amounts reported on our consolidated balance sheets as of NovemberFebruary 30,28, 20252026 and May 31, 2025. You should read these sections together with our “Executive Summary—Outlook” in this Report where we discuss trends and other factors that we expect will affect our future results of operations.
NRUC insider buying and selling (Form 4)
Since 2026-04-11, insiders reported open-market purchases in 0 Form 4 filings and open-market sales in 0 filings. Totals add up every open-market (code P and S) line in those filings, using the prices reported in the filings. Awards, option exercises, tax withholding and gifts are listed below but not counted.
No Form 4 stock transactions in this period.
Well-known investors holding NRUC (13F)
None of the 59 investors we track reported a position in their latest 13F.